From the Spaceflight Meteorology Group:

[ BLUF ]
The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (PTC 6) in western Gulf of Mexico. Generally, the system is not well organized and moving slowly to the northeast (340 @ 5 mph with max winds at 50 mph) with an equally slow strengthening process. We expect this system to develop into a tropical storm later today as it continues its trek along the Gulf Coast. This system is expected to become a hurricane (max winds 74 -110 mph) before making landfall mid-week.

[ Guidance ]
Guidance has PTC 6 following a mid-level ridge/high pressure center as it moves northeast over the Gulf with a mid-level trough/low pressure center pushing it further to the northeast mid-week. All that is to say, the mid-level ridge is a more stable feature with less variability in the forecasting track process. Most of the variance in the forecast track/impacts come from the disorganized structure of PTC 6. As it intensifies, the target area for watches, warnings, advisories, wind field, rain fall, storm surge, etc will be more specific.

[ Houston/JSC Impacts ]
With the current forecast track / strengthening of PTC 6 current wind estimates put us around 10% chance for 50 mph Tropical Storm Force winds. We can expect sustained winds/winds gusts to start picking up Monday night from around 8 mph/gusting 15 mph to 15 mph/gusting 20 mph Tuesday night, and then up to 17 mph/gusting 25 mph Wednesday night with about a 3-day decrease to return winds to normal speeds. This will be dissimilar to the previous hurricane landfall in Houston as we will be on the opposite side (left side/weaker/further away) of the storm center with much lower speeds. Total rain estimates are around 2-4 inches of rain fall expected to start with light showers early Tuesday morning with the peak intensity Wednesday morning and dropping off by Thursday morning.