The National Weather service believes the most likely scenario is for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop over next few days over the Gulf and track north into Louisiana. Most rain, wind and surge impacts will be near and east of center, so relatively minor impacts for Southeast Texas and adjacent marine areas.

Some elevated tides, surf and rip current risk. Very little wind, rain from this system.

Confidence is still medium as far as track is concerned. Will be higher once a more well defined center forms. Changes in track and impact forecast may still occur.

Tropical Storm Warnings could be issued for this system this afternoon for portions of the northern Gulf coast but not likely to include Southeast Texas unless track forecast changes significantly.